We’re hardly California or Colorado, but Florida is emerging as one of the nation’s top pot states.
The latest evidence comes in a new study that forecasts legal marijuana sales in Florida will grow by 6 percent over the next five years — by $1.3 billion.
Florida’s high population could make it one of the top three states for the sale of cannabis products, according to a new report by Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics, which track the industry.
The state’s medical marijuana sales were estimated at $626 million in 2018. An increase of $1.3 billion would put Florida’s cannabis industry near the $2 billion mark in just five years, and that doesn’t include the possibility Florida could legalize recreational marijuana as early as 2020.
In 2018, legal sales in the U.S. broke $9.8 billion. Now both medical and recreational sales are expected to grow by 20 percent a year, reaching $30 billion by 2024, according to the industry report.
California is the top-selling state for cannabis and is expected to add $4.7 billion. The Golden State had a head start, legalizing medical marijuana in the 1970s. Recreational use was legalized in 2018.
New York, which legalized medical marijuana market in 2014, is expected to see that market to grow to $144 million this year. But with the anticipated passage of recreational use, the state is forecast to add $1.6 billion, or 8 percent of the U.S. increase, according to BDS Analytics.
One reason for the growth is that cannabis is on track to become a “mainstream” product, with one-quarter of adults consuming marijuana in the last six months, the report says.
Does that mean you will soon be able to pick up pot, along with your groceries or gadgets at the nearby superstore? Not anytime soon, and that could be a good thing.
Arcview editor-in-chief Tom Adams says cannabis “is a premium opportunity" for marijuana dispensaries because they’re protected from the stiff competition from the giants — Amazon or Walmart — due to their state licensing and cannabis being illegal on the federal level.
Unlike most small businesses that try to compete with giants Amazon and Walmart, cannabis stores are limited because they’re licensed by state government. The federal prohibition against marijuana use keeps the big box store chains from competing —and potentially destroying specialty stores, the report says.
Even the internet isn’t hurting the cannabis industry because, unlike some industries, there is no electronic replacement for marijuana, the report points out.
Medical marijuana dispensaries already have swelled in South Florida and across the state.
While only medical marijuana can be legally sold in Florida, there are several proposed constitutional amendments that would legalize recreational marijuana for adults. They must obtain at least 766,200 signatures to be considered for Florida Supreme Court review and placement on the 2020 ballot.
It is anybody’s bet whether any of the constitutional amendments will land on the ballot and be passed by voters. But Florida’s addition of pot products that can be smoked earlier this year has opened up its cannabis market to even greater growth, according to the report.
Another factor will be a decision by the Florida Supreme Court on the state’s mandate that licensed operators must grow, process and sell cannabis products. That system is being challenged as unconstitutional under the amendment that legalized medical marijuana in Florida. Oral arguments have not yet been scheduled.
Florida has more than 389,000 residents who have qualified for a medical marijuana card, and 278,000 who are active card users, according to the state’s weekly report on the industry. Since October 2018, those numbers have more than doubled, from 182,000 qualified and 140,000 active card users.
The three largest dispensary chains in the state are Trulieve, with 37 stores; Surterra Wellness, with 36 stores; and Curaleaf, with 26.
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